The Department of State has released the April 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-4 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-714d
+365d
EB-4 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-714d
+365d
EB-4 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-714d
+365d
EB-4 Mexico (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-714d
+365d
EB-4 Philippines (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-714d
+365d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2023.
- EB-2 India advanced by 303 days to 15 Jul 2014.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 533 days to 01 Apr 2026.
- EB-3 China advanced by 45 days to 15 Jun 2021.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 244 days to 01 Jun 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -10.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 34.2 | -10.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 27.9 | -25.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 46.7 | +118.2 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 84.5 | +213.3 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 18.8 | -18.5 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 19.0 | -10.2 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.1 | +105.3 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 14 Nov 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2023
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 15 Feb 2024
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2023
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 20 Oct 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jan 2015
Pace: 46.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 27 Aug 2015
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2015
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Jan 2015
EB-2 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2026
Pace: 84.5 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 18.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 06 May 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jan 2015
Pace: 19.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 02 May 2015
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2015
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Jan 2015
EB-3 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2026
Pace: 43.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China has been **stalled** with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.