The Department of State has released the December 2025 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-4 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-335d
+62d
EB-4 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-335d
+62d
EB-4 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-335d
+62d
EB-4 Mexico (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-335d
+62d
EB-4 Philippines (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-335d
+62d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 31 days to 22 Jan 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 28 days to 15 Mar 2022.
- EB-2 China advanced by 61 days to 01 Jun 2021.
- EB-2 India advanced by 44 days to 15 May 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 62 days to 01 Feb 2024.
- EB-3 China advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 31 days to 22 Sep 2013.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 14 days to 15 Apr 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 6.2 | -7.7 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 3.5 | -21.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 36.3 | +26.5 | Faster |
| EB-2 India | 23.9 | +41.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 26.9 | +20.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 30.4 | +3.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 26.5 | +34.0 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 12.6 | -25.7 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 May 2023
Pace: 6.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 06 Apr 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 May 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 14 Jun 2023
EB-1 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Apr 2023
Pace: 3.5 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 20 Feb 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Apr 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 30 Apr 2023
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2021
Pace: 36.3 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 18 Oct 2021
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2021
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2021
EB-2 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2013
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 02 Sep 2013
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2013
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2013
EB-2 ROW Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jul 2024
Pace: 26.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 30.4 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 19 Feb 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Aug 2014
Pace: 26.5 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 18 Oct 2014
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2014
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Aug 2014
EB-3 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jul 2023
Pace: 12.6 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-1 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 ROW shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.