The Department of State has released the January 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-4 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-397d
+122d
EB-4 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-397d
+122d
EB-4 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-397d
+122d
EB-4 Mexico (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-397d
+122d
EB-4 Philippines (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-397d
+122d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 10 days to 01 Feb 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 323 days to 01 Feb 2023.
- EB-2 China advanced by 92 days to 01 Sep 2021.
- EB-2 India advanced by 61 days to 15 Jul 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 60 days to 01 Apr 2024.
- EB-3 China advanced by 30 days to 01 May 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 54 days to 15 Nov 2013.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 7 days to 22 Apr 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 7.1 | -17.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 30.4 | +86.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 China | 41.4 | +23.8 | Faster |
| EB-2 India | 23.9 | +30.7 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 30.5 | +10.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 27.8 | -6.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 29.1 | +23.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 11.8 | -23.7 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Aug 2023
Pace: 7.1 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 30 Nov 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Aug 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Aug 2023
Pace: 30.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 09 Dec 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Aug 2023
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 41.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 04 Jul 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-2 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2013
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 08 Feb 2014
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2013
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2013
EB-2 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2024
Pace: 30.5 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 27.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 05 Feb 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Aug 2014
Pace: 29.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 04 Oct 2014
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2014
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Aug 2014
EB-3 ROW Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jul 2023
Pace: 11.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 ROW shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.