The Department of State has released the March 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-4 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-519d
+195d
EB-4 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-519d
+195d
EB-4 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-519d
+195d
EB-4 Mexico (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-519d
+195d
EB-4 Philippines (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-519d
+195d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 28 days to 01 Mar 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 28 days to 01 Mar 2023.
- EB-2 India advanced by 62 days to 15 Sep 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 197 days to 15 Oct 2024.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 122 days to 01 Oct 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 9.4 | -17.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 32.8 | +87.0 | Faster |
| EB-2 China | 40.1 | +3.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 India | 24.0 | +36.8 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 43.2 | +55.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 22.8 | -21.7 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 23.9 | +11.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 25.3 | +26.3 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 11 Dec 2023
Pace: 9.4 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 11 Nov 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 16 Dec 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2024
Pace: 32.8 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 06 Dec 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2024
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 40.1 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 15 May 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Nov 2014
Pace: 24.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 02 Aug 2015
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Nov 2014
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Nov 2014
EB-2 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Mar 2026
Pace: 43.2 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 22.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 29 May 2022
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Jan 2022
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Aug 2014
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 06 Dec 2014
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2014
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Aug 2014
EB-3 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jan 2024
Pace: 25.3 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.