The Department of State has released the May 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-852d
+30d
EB-2 Mexico (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-852d
+30d
EB-2 Philippines (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-852d
+30d
EB-4 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-744d
+0d
EB-4 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
-744d
+0d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 30 days to 01 May 2026.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 34.2 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 27.9 | -26.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 46.7 | +118.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 87.0 | +223.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 18.8 | -21.0 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 17.8 | -11.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.1 | +92.7 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 11 Aug 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 26 Aug 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 16 Aug 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2023
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 17 Aug 2023
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Aug 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Sep 2023
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 24.4% Seasonal Pattern → 01 Jan 2022
- 24.4% I485 Queue Depth → 01 Jan 2022
- 19.8% Cross Series → 06 Jan 2022
EB-2 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2013
Pace: 46.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 82.6% No-Change Baseline → 01 Dec 2013
- 5.2% Demand Signal → 01 Dec 2013
- 3.4% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2013
EB-2 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2024
Pace: 87.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 18.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 25.6% No-Change Baseline → 01 Jan 2022
- 22.1% Demand Signal → 01 Jan 2022
- 19.5% Seasonal Pattern → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Aug 2014
Pace: 17.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 54.6% No-Change Baseline → 15 Aug 2014
- 13.0% Seasonal Pattern → 15 Aug 2014
- 13.0% I485 Queue Depth → 15 Aug 2014
EB-3 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Oct 2023
Pace: 43.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 ROW is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.